Moon madness & Earthquake info
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From: Peter Langston <psl>
Date: Mon, 20 Dec 99 14:25:09 -0800
Subject: Moon madness & Earthquake info
X-Lib-of-Cong-ISSN: 1098-7649 -=[ Fun_People ]=-
[So, does this fit in with the the general urban-lengend-like feel of the
Y2K/bright moon craze? You'll note it supplies the missing element of
DANGER and ties in well with some "facts" that turn out not to be factual,
but then again, you'll notice Jim Berklund's article isn't based on the
suspicious facts (although Mark James's introduction seems to believe in
the discredited only-every-133-years claim). I suppose it's worth noting
that what Mark calls "an 85% chance" turns out to be chances ranging from
1.85% to 4.85% with 85% confidence (is that equivalent to a range of 1.57%
to 4.12% with 100% confidence?). And finally, should we be wondering why
every percentage figure in this article except one ends in the digits 85?
You be the judge...
From: Mark James <email@example.com>
This is an article from a respected earthquake researcher, Jim Berklund,
who was the geologist for Santa Clara. He predicted the Loma Prieta quake
in 1989, for example. (And was shortly fired for doing predictions)
I think this is something to pass about.
While Earthquake prediction is not considered a science yet, when Berklund
goes on record to state an 85% chance in the next week, it is worth telling
this is not a doomsday alert, but a simple alert that there is a very high
chance of California (and other areas) encountering a 4 to 6 magnitude
earthquake this week. And a high chance of a major (7.0 or greater) quake
happening somewhere around the world this week.
Maximum high tides for the year this week
Moon is closest to earth wednesday
Earth is closest to sun next week
Heavy solar flares are occuring (this has been statistically correlated
to earthquake increases)
This earth/moon config only happens once in 133 years.
While nothing may happen, and no one is predicting California is going to
fall into the ocean, it is time to batten down the hatches, tie down
bookcases and other tall items, and be VERY careful with Xmas trees, which
can cause fires with even a minor quake.
===================== Syzygy site front page ============================
Earthchanges TV Job to be on the December 23rd 1999 Show.
PREDICTION FOR DECEMBER 1999
The Seismic Window of December 22, 1999 is constructed around a Super
Syzygy. This is my term for a day of extreme tidal forces that occurs once
every several years, and this one seems especially significant, coming close
to the millennium transition, and when two of the next three syzygies are
near-perfect alignments (eclipses.)
The latest DISCOVER magazine (Dec 1999, p. 55) contains an article by Bob
Berman that discusses most of these phenomena, including the possible
relationship of tidal forces and earthquakes. What is involved is the
convergence of the major tide-raising factors: winter Solstice, full Moon,
close perigee and highest tides in four years---all occurring on December
22nd within eleven days of the annual perihelion (January 3, 2000.)
The perigee of the Moon is 221,614 miles, little different than the closest
possible surface-to-surface approach to the Earth of 221,463 miles. The time
difference between perigee and syzygy is only 7 hours, which is typically
a once a year occurrence. The last time that the winter solstice was
accompanied by a syzygy and perigee was December 21, 1866. Knowing that, I
checked my earthquake records and found that, within two days of that peak
tidal force, a quake of about 5M centered near San Francisco was felt
strongly in Sacramento.
The master of tides, Dr. Fergus Wood (retired geophysicist/oceanographer
from NOAA), has pointed out that at the winter solstice, the Sun is at the
low point in the northern hemisphere, whereas the Moon is at its highest
point in the sky. This generates higher than normal solstitial tides. At
the Golden Gate the tidal range of 8.9 feet on December 22nd has not been
matched since January 1995, just before the catastrophic 7.2M Kobe Quake
and the unrelated, but surprising 5.0M jolt in Seattle (the strongest there
in 30 years.)
Because of these influences I am predicting, with 85% confidence, that
between December 22-29, 1999 there will be:
1.85% chance for 3.5-6.0M within 140 miles of San Jose.
2.85% chance for 3.5-6.0M within 140 miles of L.A.
3.85% chance for 3.0-5.0M in WA/OR
4.85% chance for Major (7+M) somewhere in the world, probably
in the Pacific Ring of Fire.
My MOSS (guesswork) prediction is for a 4.5-5.5M quake to hit Hawaii during
the last half of December. The chance occurrence for such a quake is about
25%. It may surprise some of you that my calculations show that Hawaii is
our shakiest state, with more quakes per square mile than California or
Alaska. I am choosing Hawaii for MOSS partly because my wife, Jan, and I
are flying there for an early Christmas with our Daughter, Krista, and her
hubby of about 8 months, Bill Beyer. (One of my few successful MOSS
predictions met me the day I arrived in Cairo for an Egyptian tour in 1995,
so we will see if that "luck" can be repeated.)
© 1999 Peter Langston